HIV Incidence

Estimated number of new HIV infections

Total number of uninfected population

Data source: UNAIDS 2019 estimates. More data on the HIV epidemic can be found at http://aidsinfo.unaids.org/.

Epidemic model

The incidence rate provides a measure of progress toward preventing onward transmission of HIV.

Longitudinal data on individuals are the best source of data but are rarely available for large populations. Special diagnostic tests in surveys or from health facilities can be used to obtain data on HIV incidence. HIV incidence is thus modelled using the Spectrum software.

General population, Age groups (0-14, 15-24, 15-49, 50+ years), sex (male, female, both)

Estimates are not collected from countries with populations < 250,000. In addition no estimates are available for 10 countries with very small HIV epidemics who do not produce estimates. For some countries the estimates were not finalized at the time of publication. The country specific values are not presented for these countries.

The countries with populations < 250,000 and the 10 countries that do not produce estimates are not included in regional or global level estimates. For countries in which the estimates were not finalized at the time of publication, the unofficial best estimates are included in the regional and global values.

Available for the World, the SDG regional groupings, LDCs, LLDCs and SIDS.

These variations will differ by country.

A description of the methodology is available at: http://www.unaids.org/sites/default/files/media_asset/Estimates_methods_2018.pdf Countries are providing with capacity building workshops every two years on the methods. In addition, they are supported by in country specialists in roughly 45 countries. Where no in country specialists are available remote assistance is provided. Guidelines are also available at: http://www.unaids.org/en/dataanalysis/datatools/spectrum-epp and at www.avenirhealth.org

http://www.unaids.org/sites/default/files/media_asset/Estimates_methods_2018.pdf Countries are fully involved in the development of the estimates. The final values are reviewed for quality by UNAIDS and approved by senior managers at national Ministries of Health.

170 countries in 2019

2000-2018

Spectrum modelling, household or key population surveys with HIV incidence-testing, Other possible data sources: Regular surveillance system among key populations.

Country teams use UNAIDS-supported software to develop estimates annually. The country teams are comprised of primarily epidemiologists, demographers, monitoring and evaluation specialists and technical partners. The software used to produce the estimates is Spectrum—developed by Avenir Health (www.avenirhealth.org)—and the Estimates and Projections Package, which is developed by the East-West Center (www.eastwestcenter.org). The UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling and Projections provides technical guidance on the development of the HIV component of the software (www.epidem.org).

Data sources are compiled all year long. The spectrum models are created in the first three months of every year and finalized by June. The next report will be in July 2020.

June 2018, June 2019, etc.

The estimates are produced by a team consisting of ministry of health, national AIDS advisory groups and development partners. The results are signed off on by senior managers at the ministries of health.

URL: unaids.org References: http://www.unaids.org/en/dataanalysis/datatools/spectrum-epp UNAIDS Global AIDS Monitoring: Indicators for monitoring the 2016 United Nations Political Declaration on Ending AIDS Political Declaration on HIV and AIDS: On the Fast Track to Accelerating the Fight against HIV and to Ending the AIDS Epidemic by 2030 http://www.unaids.org/sites/default/files/media_asset/2017-Global-AIDS-Monitoring_en.pdf . UNAIDS website for relevant data and national Spectrum files http://aidsinfo.unaids.org/ Consolidated Strategic Information Guidelines for HIV in the Health Sector. Geneva: World Health Organization; https://www.who.int/hiv/pub/guidelines/en/

This indicator is used to measure progress towards ending the AIDS epidemic. The overarching goal of the global AIDS response is to reduce the number of people newly infected to fewer than 500,000 in 2020 and fewer than 200,000 in 2030. Monitoring the rate of people newly infected over time measures the progress towards achieving this goal. Disaggregation by sex, age and key populations is important to characterize how the epidemic is evolving, to monitor equity of access to services and to support the planning of programme responses in specific age groups such as children under five, adolescents and young adults, as well as key populations.

Projections of the number of new HIV infections among children and adolescents were calculated using by applying the Average Annual Rate of Change (AARC) between 2010 and 2019 to the years 2020 and 2030. Historical trends of new HIV infections are produced from the AIDS Impact Model (AIM) in Spectrum software and take into account recent trends in HIV incidence and antiretroviral coverage among adults and pregnant women. Model inputs include population statistics, survey data and national HIV programme data, which are reviewed for completeness and quality by UNAIDS, UNICEF, WHO and collaborating partners. The target for children under age 5 is based on the Fast Track target of 20,000 new HIV infections among children globally. The target for adolescents (aged 15–19) is based on the ALL IN and Stay Free target of 75 per cent reduction in new HIV infections between 2010 and 2020. For both children and adolescents, the 2005–2020 AARC necessary to achieve the 2020 target was extrapolated to determine a 2030 target. For both children and adolescents, each country’s target was below 0.001 new HIV infections per 1,000 uninfected population. In addition, any country is considered to have met their target if the number of annual new HIV infections for each age group drops below 10.